Too big to fail is the goal. If the world is powered by openai but it aint making a profit in 2028 they can just put their "were a utility like water" facemask on and get bailed out.
Surely SamA doesn’t actually think that they’ll more than 20x their compute in a few years? I’m sure the researchers there would love to do more research, with more compute, faster, but 20+x growth is not a practical expectation.
Is the goal here to create a mad rush to build data centers, which should decrease their costs with more supply? Do they just want governments to step in and to help somehow? Is it part of marketing/hype? Is this trying to project confidence to investors on future revenue expectations?
> Surely SamA doesn’t actually think that they’ll more than 20x their compute in a few years?
He does, or at least, he believes if its plausible they should attempt to.
We live in odd times. It sort of reminds me of Feb 2020. All you really needed to know was the Rt and rest was just math. Who knows if it'll matter or pencil out in a decade, but, it's completely reasonable at these growth rates and with the iron laws known to keep scaling.
"OpenAI recently told its investors and business partners that it was likely to spend around $16 billion in renting computing servers this year, and that the expenditure could rise to around $400 billion in 2029, people familiar with the matter said."
$16Bn in compute spend (rent) rising to $400bn in 4 years.
Definitely not a bubble. ;)
We give a lot of shit when LLMs get lost in context, digging themselves deeper and deeper into illogical trains of thoughts.
But is this sama doing the same thing. He CAN NOT stop and MUST NOT slow down. The slightest display of hesitation and doubt will make it all come crashing down.
And everyone else is doing the same. It’s an international game of chicken.
https://archive.md/OnsLK
Too big to fail is the goal. If the world is powered by openai but it aint making a profit in 2028 they can just put their "were a utility like water" facemask on and get bailed out.
That’s a fun trope but it’s a terrible outcome for shareholders.
What is their angle with this?
Surely SamA doesn’t actually think that they’ll more than 20x their compute in a few years? I’m sure the researchers there would love to do more research, with more compute, faster, but 20+x growth is not a practical expectation.
Is the goal here to create a mad rush to build data centers, which should decrease their costs with more supply? Do they just want governments to step in and to help somehow? Is it part of marketing/hype? Is this trying to project confidence to investors on future revenue expectations?
Surely SamA doesn’t actually think that they’ll more than 20x their compute in a few years?
If their goal is to train say, a 100T model on the whole youtube dataset they will need 20000x more compute. And that would be my goal if I were him.
Why 20000x more compute? I thought they were at approx 1T with current compute?
Edit: nvm looked it up. 10k+ times more for training compute. Sheesh. Get the Dyson sphere ready lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy6Dw9rOAFQ
> Surely SamA doesn’t actually think that they’ll more than 20x their compute in a few years?
He does, or at least, he believes if its plausible they should attempt to.
We live in odd times. It sort of reminds me of Feb 2020. All you really needed to know was the Rt and rest was just math. Who knows if it'll matter or pencil out in a decade, but, it's completely reasonable at these growth rates and with the iron laws known to keep scaling.
https://archive.is/OnsLK
From the article:
"OpenAI recently told its investors and business partners that it was likely to spend around $16 billion in renting computing servers this year, and that the expenditure could rise to around $400 billion in 2029, people familiar with the matter said."
$16Bn in compute spend (rent) rising to $400bn in 4 years. Definitely not a bubble. ;)
> Definitely not a bubble. ;)
When you square that with the total revenues of 6B in 1H.
Bitcoin:
AI: Hold my beer.
I also feel like there is a bubble.
However, looking at it impartially, it seems to mean sama is planning on making more money. Which seems to conclude in ads are incoming.
We give a lot of shit when LLMs get lost in context, digging themselves deeper and deeper into illogical trains of thoughts.
But is this sama doing the same thing. He CAN NOT stop and MUST NOT slow down. The slightest display of hesitation and doubt will make it all come crashing down.
And everyone else is doing the same. It’s an international game of chicken.