Makes sense. Economic tit for tat. Crypto is a cable for moving money out of China and Russia and back into assets in the west mainly real estate hence the huge disparity between income and housing prices post Tether
What concerns me is China can absolutely trigger a market meltdown in equities as well especially pull the rug out from entire companies with a flip of a button ex) SVB
The timing of Xi Jinping's stroke 11 days before the 4th Plenum where a new leader is supposed to be announced, massive build up of military assets around Taiwan recently is not a coincidence
My money says China is getting ready to take Taiwan but not in the way many in the West envision in their WW2 fantasy.
I sold all my stocks. We are going to see assets across the whole sector correct even gold.
Also we might be seeing the start of the end of CCP.
> We are going to see assets across the whole sector correct even gold.
What would gold correct relative to? I can't really comprehend why something like a national currency would maintain its purchasing value as well as any physical asset in the dissolving contracts kind of scenario you describe.
I will agree that other nations will begin taking what they want instead of just keeping these things as alternatives. It is of course surprising that China's response to America first wasn't to put America's interests first.
This is a very ignorant take. Americans always want to pin everything on a bogeymen.
The largest beneficiary we know of in this liquidation event was an anonymous trader who shorted bitcoin on Hyperliquid just before Trump's tarrif announcement, and made 88M dollars.You think the Chinese did that ? If the Chinese wanted to nuke any market it would be equities.
That was quite something. A lot of altcoins dropped 80%+ before bouncing back. All cascade of liquidations of people who were margined up which happens all the time but I'm not sure there's been one as big as that in crypto before.
Holy shit, I have no skin in the game except some stablecoins/gold coins or 1$ in some cryptocurrency that's stuck lol but I still like going to r/cryptocurrency or coinmarketcap
I have written my thoughts/article like 3-4 months about it and I also sometimes like to talk to crypto traders about it just to have some fun talking to them and trying to convince them that what they do sort of is irrational imo and seeing their responses (I mean no shade on anybody if someone's into it, I just hope that you all have safety nets please, please invest into international index funds maybe excluding US right now given its in a state of bubble-ish but please I have nothing against US)
I wanted to be a investor but I found out that sure there are people who can do this, 99% people don't need it and index funds are good enough, even for myself. I read intelligent investor just barely but I read john bogle's book (bought it) and 20 most important things something book from my school library and both of them share on how its not guaranteed and how imo index funds can be the best option for genuinely everybody
So reading that, I actually kinda shifted away from that to some other finance but then I found out that I was gonna be a beauracratic slave or take some cuts saving some rich guy some money from taxes which I think is cool but I found linux cooler :)
I say it again and again. China owns a big chunk of US equities and an even bigger chunk of Bitcoin holdings. The first sign of any conflict between US and China interests is always a dump in those.
A 25% move in crypto isn't a catastrophic swing. Nor is $6bn in liquidations for some leveraged traders.
If they're going to liquidate anything because they need the cash, it will be US treasuries first, since they're the easiest to sell in the largest amount of size.
Not sure about the true/false of your premise, but a potential conflict between US and China will adversely affect all risk assets, which include US equity and crypto (unless you are one of those who equate crypto to gold). However, I don't think you could reverse the thinking and try to associate US-China conflict with a market disturbance solely based on the previous observation.
TLDR: I repeatedly mention that crypto doesn't make sense but the tech behind it could enable things like stablecoins but they won't make anyone 100x money but that is the point of them and I love them for it
Here is the last paragraph which I wrote which might be apt right now
> The tech is cool, but it is doomed to fall and if it doesn't, then I am fine too, I don't care. I am happy with my index funds and gold and even basic stablecoins. I am content. I don't want 100x returns.
Also fun fact: This article That I wrote repeatedly urged stripe to create a stable cryptocurrency themselves and few months after this article stripe released a collaborated stable cryptocurrency or something which was super nice to me as that's what I wanted. Not sure what the progress is on it but I saw it on HN and it looked super dope and exactly what I wanted if they integrate it into stripe nicely.
Agreed. Its just that sometimes these regulations would've made damn hard for me to get money without having something like paypal and that had its bunch of issues as well
I think that even in the article I had wrote that 99% don't need stablecoins as well but for people for whom USD or gold access could be hard, I can maybe see some usecase but then again as I said 99% don't need it but for the 1% like me who did, that's all there is to worry about. Maybe monero can have some usecase too since people use it as an actual currency but even then I would only buy monero in low quantity and still keep most money in stablecoins or most preferably banks as you said.
You can say it as many times as you like and you'll still be wrong. China owns about 1-2% of US equities. Dumping those would only be noise. And no one cares about Bitcoin: if it goes to zero there would still be no noticeable impact on the US economy.
https://archive.ph/06vyH
Makes sense. Economic tit for tat. Crypto is a cable for moving money out of China and Russia and back into assets in the west mainly real estate hence the huge disparity between income and housing prices post Tether
What concerns me is China can absolutely trigger a market meltdown in equities as well especially pull the rug out from entire companies with a flip of a button ex) SVB
The timing of Xi Jinping's stroke 11 days before the 4th Plenum where a new leader is supposed to be announced, massive build up of military assets around Taiwan recently is not a coincidence
My money says China is getting ready to take Taiwan but not in the way many in the West envision in their WW2 fantasy.
I sold all my stocks. We are going to see assets across the whole sector correct even gold.
Also we might be seeing the start of the end of CCP.
> What concerns me is China can absolutely trigger a market meltdown in equities
Agreed - if they wanted.
> as well especially pull the rug out from entire companies with a flip of a button ex) SVB
They didn't cause the collapse of SVB, SVB collapsed because of rising inflation and piss poor asset liability matching.
> My money says China is getting ready to take Taiwan but not in the way many in the West envision in their WW2 fantasy.
How do you think? I'm curious
> Also we might be seeing the start of the end of CCP.
Don't know if I agree with this but I am curious as to why you think it
My guess is they walk in and say “Welcome home!” And Taiwan decides they don’t want to be annihilated and the world ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ as they do.
It's tough to walk across the Taiwan Strait.
SVB pulled the rug out from themselves through failure to properly manage interest rate risk. It wasn't China.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/svb-review...
> We are going to see assets across the whole sector correct even gold.
What would gold correct relative to? I can't really comprehend why something like a national currency would maintain its purchasing value as well as any physical asset in the dissolving contracts kind of scenario you describe.
I will agree that other nations will begin taking what they want instead of just keeping these things as alternatives. It is of course surprising that China's response to America first wasn't to put America's interests first.
This is a very ignorant take. Americans always want to pin everything on a bogeymen. The largest beneficiary we know of in this liquidation event was an anonymous trader who shorted bitcoin on Hyperliquid just before Trump's tarrif announcement, and made 88M dollars.You think the Chinese did that ? If the Chinese wanted to nuke any market it would be equities.
Not surprising to hear an ignorant take from someone using a racial slur as a username that would get them instantly banned if it were in English.
That was quite something. A lot of altcoins dropped 80%+ before bouncing back. All cascade of liquidations of people who were margined up which happens all the time but I'm not sure there's been one as big as that in crypto before.
Holy shit, I have no skin in the game except some stablecoins/gold coins or 1$ in some cryptocurrency that's stuck lol but I still like going to r/cryptocurrency or coinmarketcap
They are both in frenzy right now.
There is literal blood on the street 25% drops lol https://coinmarketcap.com/
I have written my thoughts/article like 3-4 months about it and I also sometimes like to talk to crypto traders about it just to have some fun talking to them and trying to convince them that what they do sort of is irrational imo and seeing their responses (I mean no shade on anybody if someone's into it, I just hope that you all have safety nets please, please invest into international index funds maybe excluding US right now given its in a state of bubble-ish but please I have nothing against US)
I wanted to be a investor but I found out that sure there are people who can do this, 99% people don't need it and index funds are good enough, even for myself. I read intelligent investor just barely but I read john bogle's book (bought it) and 20 most important things something book from my school library and both of them share on how its not guaranteed and how imo index funds can be the best option for genuinely everybody
So reading that, I actually kinda shifted away from that to some other finance but then I found out that I was gonna be a beauracratic slave or take some cuts saving some rich guy some money from taxes which I think is cool but I found linux cooler :)
> literal blood on the street
People are jumping off of buildings?
Whose blood is on which street? What happened to them? Where did they go?
I say it again and again. China owns a big chunk of US equities and an even bigger chunk of Bitcoin holdings. The first sign of any conflict between US and China interests is always a dump in those.
A 25% move in crypto isn't a catastrophic swing. Nor is $6bn in liquidations for some leveraged traders.
If they're going to liquidate anything because they need the cash, it will be US treasuries first, since they're the easiest to sell in the largest amount of size.
Not sure about the true/false of your premise, but a potential conflict between US and China will adversely affect all risk assets, which include US equity and crypto (unless you are one of those who equate crypto to gold). However, I don't think you could reverse the thinking and try to associate US-China conflict with a market disturbance solely based on the previous observation.
>unless you are one of those who equate crypto to gold
There are cryptocurrencies which are equal to gold (paxg)
Those and some good stablecoin like USDC are all that I trust.
I literally have all my money that I ever got somehow from people with whom I worked/coded as a teen but couldn't get a bank account.
https://justforhn.mataroa.blog/blog/most-crypto-is-doomed-to...
TLDR: I repeatedly mention that crypto doesn't make sense but the tech behind it could enable things like stablecoins but they won't make anyone 100x money but that is the point of them and I love them for it
Here is the last paragraph which I wrote which might be apt right now
> The tech is cool, but it is doomed to fall and if it doesn't, then I am fine too, I don't care. I am happy with my index funds and gold and even basic stablecoins. I am content. I don't want 100x returns.
Also fun fact: This article That I wrote repeatedly urged stripe to create a stable cryptocurrency themselves and few months after this article stripe released a collaborated stable cryptocurrency or something which was super nice to me as that's what I wanted. Not sure what the progress is on it but I saw it on HN and it looked super dope and exactly what I wanted if they integrate it into stripe nicely.
Edit: https://tempo.xyz/ is what I was talking about
What's the difference between a stablecoin and a regular boring old bank?
Answer: no regulations on stablecoins. And we all know how unregulated markets never ever lead to problems.
Agreed. Its just that sometimes these regulations would've made damn hard for me to get money without having something like paypal and that had its bunch of issues as well
I think that even in the article I had wrote that 99% don't need stablecoins as well but for people for whom USD or gold access could be hard, I can maybe see some usecase but then again as I said 99% don't need it but for the 1% like me who did, that's all there is to worry about. Maybe monero can have some usecase too since people use it as an actual currency but even then I would only buy monero in low quantity and still keep most money in stablecoins or most preferably banks as you said.
You can say it as many times as you like and you'll still be wrong. China owns about 1-2% of US equities. Dumping those would only be noise. And no one cares about Bitcoin: if it goes to zero there would still be no noticeable impact on the US economy.