I watched this video earlier today and came away unconvinced. Labeling this HN post as debunking feels a bit leading as that is not the title of the video. They did not follow all of the necessary logic to debunk it.
They boiled it down to: might be technically possible, but it's improbable, if you make assumptions we're making that are unreasonable.
Whether the video was just sloppy and weak by chance, or they're trying to bury this, or it legitimately doesn't work, I don't know. This video doesn't answer that.
More likely, the story is designed to make the public believe that US propaganda is actually aimed at the "foreign adversary" rather than at the US population. The emotionally appealing bit is the idea that even if the story is fake, Iran is now thinking it is dealing with an adversary that has and is using tech that is right out of science fiction.
In reality, it's all aimed at us, the people. All of the "tough talk", the comments that appear intended for dissident groups within Iran, etc., is all meant to mislead the people (us) who can stop the war so we don't do so.
The us did recently announce that is has technology that can manipulate space and time or something.
It's very likely a psyop like you said. "You don't know how advanced we really are! When we come for you you better just give up!"
I bet the us does have some secret weapons technologies. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them are sci fi adjacent. But I think their biggest asset is likely intelligence, and channels to mass manipulate people via the Internet and boots/agents on the ground. Fortunately for other countries that power is more effective domestically. Unfortunately for us citizens there are trillions of dollars developing technologies to destroy us and not enemies.
The shift in us politics is directly related to feeding this. Defense/offense companies need to make more money. So they need to use these tools. Us citizens are the likely next targets beyond things like software exploits and taking over a few countries seemingly randomly.
We know it's simple to detect someone's heartbeat from just colour changes of ones skin in a regular video taken with a phone camera. Wouldn't this be trivial with military level IR tech? Sounds way more likely than some amazing new top secret technology that is somehow filtering out every other magnetic field and can detect a heartbeat through mountains.
Why is everyone debating some theoretical advanced heartbeat or otherwise people detection tech rather than the absolutely obvious answer - some kind of advanced, specialized transmitter that's designed to be hard to detect and simply transmits the encrypted GPS coordinates of the pilot?
"The CIA used a futuristic new tool called “Ghost Murmur” to find and rescue the second American airman who was shot down in southern Iran, The Post has learned. The secret technology uses long-range quantum magnetometry to find the electromagnetic signal of a human heartbeat"
Note, I agree that it was probably some novel beacon technology. Just answering your question about why people are debating whether it was a device that could detect a human heartbeat from long range.
Almost all of those words could be true if the beacon is disguised as an implanted medical device that creates some EM "interference" on each heartbeat, or every X heartbeats. From the outside it would look like sloppy design or a minor malfunction, in reality the signal is designed to be highly trackable
Not that I believe any of those words are true beyond the code name. The incident is exactly the kind of thing you'd want to create false rumors about
it just sounds like the submarine communication technology, very low baud rate, used to transmit the pilot's location and liveness, using quantum magnetometry to measure a magnetic field without huge coil areas.
There were commercially available lidar/ladar sensors that can do basic spectroscopy at a great distance. Specifically, the public specification showed it was able to pinpoint C02 or nitrate levels over 14km away.
Keep in mind this was published over a decade ago, and I'm sure they have systems with better specs these days. Too bad these were too cost prohibitive for FSD automotive platforms.
There are magnetic sensors that could detect rusting-container currents over 3 meters away, but still unlikely possible outdoors. There is a point where the thermal noise floor means any signal is lost at a minimal threshold.
I am sure folks are extra cautious about detailing key technology these days. =3
There are also dirt cheap human presence sensors that use millimetre wave radar that can detect if a person is in the room even if they’re sitting still. If I can buy these for a couple dollars then what could the military do with a few billion dollars and reaper drone platforms? With a big enough array you might be able to pinpoint everything alive within the area under surveillance.
this is such a classic, well trodden propaganda tool i'm surprised anyone here falls for it.
tell the public about an incredibly advanced piece of tech that simultaneously justifies the $1 trillion+ military budget, makes people fear the sophistication of our government (prevent dissidence internally) and distract from otherwise embarrassing flaws in the war so far.
it's like how trump releases "proof" of aliens ever time he wants to distract from a new epstein files bombshell.
if you believe this i've got a bridge to sell you.
Back many years ago I worked on a research project which used UWB radar to detect breathing through walls / rubble / etc. But the distance was in the range of 1-10 meters. The application was to use such sensors for finding survivors after earthquakes etc.
If they can detect the faint signal of a heartbeat from so far away, why not instead deliberately transmit a weak, wider-bandwidth pseudorandom magnetic signal? Such a signal would be even harder to detect than a heartbeat without prior knowledge, yet easier to identify and track using a matched filter.
When a military achieves something and there's intense speculation on how they did it, they will want to obfuscate how they did it. One of the best ways to do that is to give a range of different explanations, some fanciful, some plausible, none of which are completely accurate, leaked to a range of credible and non-credible people. A disinformation campaign.
Presumably we're cunningly exploiting specifics of their world view.
Despite the authoritarian rule, PRC still values education highly in quite a few contexts where it doesn't interfere too much with the authoritarianism, and the country not only has plenty of physics graduates who will have learned about the Josephson effect, but might well listen to them and give them adequate grants for R&D.
I watched this video earlier today and came away unconvinced. Labeling this HN post as debunking feels a bit leading as that is not the title of the video. They did not follow all of the necessary logic to debunk it.
They boiled it down to: might be technically possible, but it's improbable, if you make assumptions we're making that are unreasonable.
Whether the video was just sloppy and weak by chance, or they're trying to bury this, or it legitimately doesn't work, I don't know. This video doesn't answer that.
More likely, the story is designed to make the public believe that US propaganda is actually aimed at the "foreign adversary" rather than at the US population. The emotionally appealing bit is the idea that even if the story is fake, Iran is now thinking it is dealing with an adversary that has and is using tech that is right out of science fiction.
In reality, it's all aimed at us, the people. All of the "tough talk", the comments that appear intended for dissident groups within Iran, etc., is all meant to mislead the people (us) who can stop the war so we don't do so.
The us did recently announce that is has technology that can manipulate space and time or something.
It's very likely a psyop like you said. "You don't know how advanced we really are! When we come for you you better just give up!"
I bet the us does have some secret weapons technologies. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them are sci fi adjacent. But I think their biggest asset is likely intelligence, and channels to mass manipulate people via the Internet and boots/agents on the ground. Fortunately for other countries that power is more effective domestically. Unfortunately for us citizens there are trillions of dollars developing technologies to destroy us and not enemies.
The shift in us politics is directly related to feeding this. Defense/offense companies need to make more money. So they need to use these tools. Us citizens are the likely next targets beyond things like software exploits and taking over a few countries seemingly randomly.
> The us did recently announce that is has technology that can manipulate space and time or something.
Do you have more on this?
We know it's simple to detect someone's heartbeat from just colour changes of ones skin in a regular video taken with a phone camera. Wouldn't this be trivial with military level IR tech? Sounds way more likely than some amazing new top secret technology that is somehow filtering out every other magnetic field and can detect a heartbeat through mountains.
Why is everyone debating some theoretical advanced heartbeat or otherwise people detection tech rather than the absolutely obvious answer - some kind of advanced, specialized transmitter that's designed to be hard to detect and simply transmits the encrypted GPS coordinates of the pilot?
Because the NY Post ran an article that said
"The CIA used a futuristic new tool called “Ghost Murmur” to find and rescue the second American airman who was shot down in southern Iran, The Post has learned. The secret technology uses long-range quantum magnetometry to find the electromagnetic signal of a human heartbeat"
Note, I agree that it was probably some novel beacon technology. Just answering your question about why people are debating whether it was a device that could detect a human heartbeat from long range.
Almost all of those words could be true if the beacon is disguised as an implanted medical device that creates some EM "interference" on each heartbeat, or every X heartbeats. From the outside it would look like sloppy design or a minor malfunction, in reality the signal is designed to be highly trackable
Not that I believe any of those words are true beyond the code name. The incident is exactly the kind of thing you'd want to create false rumors about
it just sounds like the submarine communication technology, very low baud rate, used to transmit the pilot's location and liveness, using quantum magnetometry to measure a magnetic field without huge coil areas.
We literally know what beacon device was used: Boeing CSEL
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/in...
Or just rocking up to the nearest village with a thousand dollars in cash and asking where the pilot is.
There were commercially available lidar/ladar sensors that can do basic spectroscopy at a great distance. Specifically, the public specification showed it was able to pinpoint C02 or nitrate levels over 14km away.
Keep in mind this was published over a decade ago, and I'm sure they have systems with better specs these days. Too bad these were too cost prohibitive for FSD automotive platforms.
There are magnetic sensors that could detect rusting-container currents over 3 meters away, but still unlikely possible outdoors. There is a point where the thermal noise floor means any signal is lost at a minimal threshold.
I am sure folks are extra cautious about detailing key technology these days. =3
There are also dirt cheap human presence sensors that use millimetre wave radar that can detect if a person is in the room even if they’re sitting still. If I can buy these for a couple dollars then what could the military do with a few billion dollars and reaper drone platforms? With a big enough array you might be able to pinpoint everything alive within the area under surveillance.
https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005007989577185.html
There are so many easier ways to detect a person that I don't understand why they chose going with this charade
It is more plausible than most of the stuff said publicly by the administration, and makes Americans feel like the trillions are worth it.
By Veritasium, for anyone else wondering whether to click
Thanks, saved me a click.
What’s wrong with veritasium?
It's been bought up by venture capital and it's rubbed a lot of fans the wrong way with the changes by the new management.
I was also afraid of that, but I actually really liked the recent videos.
this is such a classic, well trodden propaganda tool i'm surprised anyone here falls for it.
tell the public about an incredibly advanced piece of tech that simultaneously justifies the $1 trillion+ military budget, makes people fear the sophistication of our government (prevent dissidence internally) and distract from otherwise embarrassing flaws in the war so far.
it's like how trump releases "proof" of aliens ever time he wants to distract from a new epstein files bombshell.
if you believe this i've got a bridge to sell you.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic -- Clarke's three laws
HOWEVER, sometimes, if a technology is sounded like a magic too much, then maybe it just is, without any technology in it.
Back many years ago I worked on a research project which used UWB radar to detect breathing through walls / rubble / etc. But the distance was in the range of 1-10 meters. The application was to use such sensors for finding survivors after earthquakes etc.
or bombings
If they can detect the faint signal of a heartbeat from so far away, why not instead deliberately transmit a weak, wider-bandwidth pseudorandom magnetic signal? Such a signal would be even harder to detect than a heartbeat without prior knowledge, yet easier to identify and track using a matched filter.
They want to lie about how they found the soldier, and potentially have China spend a few billion trying to copy technology that can never work.
Militaries and their disinformation units are like this.
There are at least 5 different narratives about how the US found Osama bin Laden, which contradict each other:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Alt...
When a military achieves something and there's intense speculation on how they did it, they will want to obfuscate how they did it. One of the best ways to do that is to give a range of different explanations, some fanciful, some plausible, none of which are completely accurate, leaked to a range of credible and non-credible people. A disinformation campaign.
Why are we assuming China is too gullible to know this technology can never work, when it's so obvious to the lay HN commentariat?
Presumably we're cunningly exploiting specifics of their world view.
Despite the authoritarian rule, PRC still values education highly in quite a few contexts where it doesn't interfere too much with the authoritarianism, and the country not only has plenty of physics graduates who will have learned about the Josephson effect, but might well listen to them and give them adequate grants for R&D.
Because not everyone has a transmitter, but everyone has a heartbeat?
Though in this case the pilot likely had a transmitter and that's exactly how they found him.
I think the link must be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVTPv4sI_Jc
That's my fault, I was writing an email about COPPA at the same time and pasted in the wrong link. Oops!