As stated by Carney, this is not exactly true, but something like this has been expected. From a legal and sovereignty standpoint, EU membership of any kind does not make sense. A novel bloc of nations centered around military and economic cooperation that includes the EU and Canada however, does.
And it's not even "novel" in the sense that this group already exist, except so far it was gravitating around the US, and it might just reorient to gravitate around someone else.
Mostly a semantic concern in the name given the shared interests and concerns both have in a number of things including the Arctic. It's more a "North Atlantic" group of nations view both sides seem to be taking, but you know, without the US.
I suppose. America is a much more mixed bag, while Canada at its core is still British, Scottish, and French. Enough cities have a certain sterile and organized appearance more common in Europe than the US. Not sure how else I'd describe it, but maybe Canada is a bit more "monolithic"?
You could argue even more effectively that it was British by founding and a British colony, with a big influence from the French. And we know what happened with Britain and the EU.
Who knows, maybe after all the doom and gloom the EU might just win by default because the other world powers have become so unattractive the rest of the world rallies around them?
Why? Seems the US doesn't like democracy anymore and the EU for all its faults still does. I can see Japan joining too and potentially South Korea, Philippines, and others who are concerned about the state of the world and want to work together rather than drive the world apart.
If I’d said to you last year “Hey! I bet Canada is going to join the EU! No, of course not as charter-violating full member, as a newly invented ‘associate member’!” You’d probably have said “That’s both crazy and oddly specific, the chances of that have to be approaching zero”.
I think the world would be jumping into alignments like this if the US hadn't spent the last 80 years building a "nuclear umbrella" for the "western alliance" with itself in the centre.
I bet many countries would prefer to disassociate with US foreign policy right now if they weren't security dependent.
I expect after this destructive episode in history has played out, if we're all still alive and free in another decade then there will be alternative umbrellas.
Reality doesn't need to be plausible; we're all characters in each other's first-person narratives, with no access to the voice of an omniscient narrator.
I mean, it's only what the US is doing that's strange.
It's a country with tons of raw resources and a large consumer market, they're the "dream partner" for the large blocks (USA/China/EU, and Japan/India a bit behind). You buy their resources, they make a lot of money from it, you turn it into a final product and you make a lot of money from the value added, everyone is happy.
It's really weird that the US is suddenly not happy about this arrangement, and for resource-starved EU it's a golden opportunity; of course we will happily buy if the US doesn't want to anymore. That's why there is so little friction showing up (there will be more later, of course, but relatively little), why Canada can get so many deal quickly with everyone during this turnaround, it's that obvious of a win for everyone involved.
(as usual, the key blocking point that will need lots of work will be food, even more than it is with the US, I wish we could scrap that entire part to get a v1 going quickly but alas it's not how trade deal work)
> (as usual, the key blocking point that will need lots of work will be food, eve more than it is with the US, I wish we could scrap that entire part to get a v1 going quickly but alas it's not how trade deal work)
I mean food/dairy/autos (which is also a major EU issue) have been 90% of the issues with Canada/USA trade for decades too so I have my doubts of them figuring it out any better.
I guess Canada is way more motivated then ever before as rapid souring of the relationship with the USA from this point would be a near economic collapse for them.
CETA (the existing EU/CA one) is also being bogged down in some country including my own (France) because of some food issues, so I think everyone involved knows.
And while you're correct about Canada being extra motivated at the moment; so is the EU. It's such an absurd situation that we know the "urgent pivot need" might slow down a lot if adult come back in charge in the US. Same reason why so many want to sign so quickly, it's like gold on a platter AND Canada win too, you don't spit on that offer.
The other day in a Dutch geopolitics podcast (Boekestijn en de Wijk) it was mentioned that if there's one country that could be added to the EU "at the stroke of a pen", it would be Canada. In terms of state of the democracy, shared values, etc. And I agree with that perspective. But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it. It would be like a mirror image of Russia feeling encroached by NATO, but then in the Western hemisphere. And perhaps a red cloth invitation to the frothing bull(ies) of the Trump administration to invade their neighbor.
The US-Iran war is very unpopular and it's not even that the US is winning it.
Going against Canada would mean .. what? Having tanks roll in Toronto downtown? Assuming it would be a military success, which isn't guaranteed after what happens in Iran,that would be unpopular beyond anything we've seen.
Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically.
From what I read about what they wanted Canada to sign (the "new deal" Canada walked out of), they want to give them strict conditions and no abilities to make new deals with someone else to make them fully dependant. So the goal was not really military conquest but economic stranglehold. All the while apparently asking to tone down their minorities including the french one.
There is an alternate timeline where Canada signed that, and it looks much bleaker for them down the road.
It's a two way street; sanction on big tech is also the big weapon the EU has against the US if need be and that we kept threatening but never activating.
Which doesn't mean it's easy or won't hurt like hell, but this is a continent that just cut most of the gas cord lines in record times despite massive pain and cost, if it came down to it we would simply because if it comes down to this and we don't then we're done.
Short time it would damage us pretty hard, but long term it would be another net loss for the US.
This “at the stroke of the pen” idea is fantastical. Actual Canadians would have next to no interest in this. Whole provinces of Canada don’t even want to be part of Canada so their appetite for having the EU parliament and Commission anywhere near them would be slim to none. Having 250million Europeans eligible to migrate to Canada would similarly be dead in the water even if a few people in Toronto and Quebec might warm to the idea of going the other way.
It was the same way with Australia becoming eligible to enter the Eurovision Song Contest, .. and yet here we are today with that thoroughly normalised.
The context in the podcast was that EU was too picky in their reform criteria for inclusion for current candidates on the European continent, but that Canada as a modern country would sail past and pass the exam. The ease with which these experts concluded it would make sense for Canada to join struck me, because impact on geopolitical relationship with US was imho too easily overlooked. It is a sentiment I hear more often now, in the news.
Then that means Canada must build overwhelming firepower clearly and mine the border to hell, build anti aircraft systems everywhere and take whatever steps needed to prevent and repel an unprovoked invasion, just like it is logical for Ukraine to do the same to protect itself from Russia.
This seems to be what Canada and Europe want from each other. Both have interests in repelling other powers that deserve to have their economic and military capabilities weakened, and both seem to be able to help each other on expanding economic base, energy security, food supply, and resource availability/manufacturing capability with existing intellectual and trade property that will distance them from the US MIC.
> But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it.
You don‘t want to have any level of association with us, as you‘ve made clear repeatedly over many years, involving many insults.
Don‘t expect the EU to actively offer anything again. Do the first step (after getting a clear view what proportion of your population actually wants that).
The United Kingdom would be a great member, as you had been. But that ship has politically sailed.
You seem extremely confused. Why do you want your ex partner to treat you nicely when you yourself stated you hate them? Do you want to force a relationship again despite the other party not wanting you or even you yourself wanting it? You seem completely incoherent and absurd. Make up your mind whether you want to join a voluntary membership organization or not.
The main confusion here is your use of unsuitable metaphor - people choosing that a political bloc is not behaving in a way that they believe represents their interests is in no way analogous to an abusive partner beating his/her significant other, and it is pretty addled to even make that comparison. Yet paradoxically sensible, because it demonstrates why the political process stalled as that framing really is what is in the minds of the EU bureaucrats towards the UK now. You’re also overlooking that 49% of the voters in the UK voted to stay in the EU.
Your country chose to divorce of its own will, the EU didn't kick you out. It is not a forcible organization like being a citizen in a country, its completely voluntary. So why the hell are you whining about the EU ignoring you when you yourself divorced from it. Nobody is stopping you from insulting or hating anyone you want. What is absurd to then also want to force them to interact with you and then this absurd heisen bullshit of leaving them and whining they don't want you in when there is nothing stopping you from making the request to be let in. Make up your goddamned mind, why on earth should the EU have to give you an invite when you were the one who left it and now you want to join/not-join. Be coherent. If you want to join, say it clearly and put a vote in the UK, or if you don't want to join then make it clear, otherwise stop complaining about the EU not wishing to entertain your unstated requests.
If your country initiated a divorce, it makes no sense for the other party to invite you again. You should have to request first and show to them eg with a vote you won't again flake out in a few years.
Carney has said Canada is not looking to become a "member" of the EU. Meanwhile, "associate member" is an entirely new thing that has yet to be defined. These aren't incompatible statements.
It appears more accurate to say that Canada and the EU want to work together more closely than they do now. There will be something more than CETA. Perhaps more shared standards on food, etc.. Likely more military procurement cooperation. Perhaps something akin to NATO style military cooperation, just in case NATO implodes*. Perhaps there will be some cooperation in trade disputes as well.
I suspect there is recognition that middle powers like the EU, Canada, Australia, etc. can do a better job of cooperating without everyone joining the EU and giving up an uncomfortable amount of sovereignty. Slightly more cooperation than currently exists may be all that's required for middle powers to do a better job of standing up to the supers.
_________
*NATO imploding is unlikely, but it's always good to have a fallback.
>>> "We're not looking to become a member of the European Union," Carney said Sunday evening on the red carpet of the Toronto International Film Festival. He attended the festival shortly after giving a speech to kick off the two-day Canada Investment Summit, which begins Monday.
>>> "What we are looking — and will begin discussions for — [is] a unique alliance with the European Union. We share the same values, we have the same priorities and we have very complementary strengths."
The EU is NOTHING like the US. The difference between each member is the same as the difference between the US and Mexico, not like the difference between California and Utah.
It's utter ignorance to suggest that the EU could one day become a single country.
“A single country” is pretty vague. For some definitions the EU already is one, for other definitions the EU can never be one.
What we do need is doing more things on the EU level. E.g. there’s no point in all member states building a nuclear umbrella or a space program. Some taxes also work better on an EU level because capital flows freely in the union and makes taxation hard for individual members.
Nevertheless that exact plan is in the minds of every higher-up running the EU. Individual counties are an anachronism that will eventually be got rid of if the EU is to continue.
The UK is a "country of countries" - with fairly significant differences between some of the component parts - maybe the EU could become something like that?
The political union of England and Scotland was achieved without bloodshed and largely because folks in Scotland wanted a financial bailout to cover the utterly disastrous Scottish colonial efforts in Darien.
As stated by Carney, this is not exactly true, but something like this has been expected. From a legal and sovereignty standpoint, EU membership of any kind does not make sense. A novel bloc of nations centered around military and economic cooperation that includes the EU and Canada however, does.
And it's not even "novel" in the sense that this group already exist, except so far it was gravitating around the US, and it might just reorient to gravitate around someone else.
It certainly does not make sense seeing as Canada is not in Europe.
Mostly a semantic concern in the name given the shared interests and concerns both have in a number of things including the Arctic. It's more a "North Atlantic" group of nations view both sides seem to be taking, but you know, without the US.
And a fairly serious geographical one.
The Eurovision song contest includes Australia in its member nations. Mindblowing I know, but it's possible for a thing to transcend its name.
One could argue that it is European by founding and history though.
Founded by Europeans, still mostly populated by people of European ancestry, with laws written by Europeans and based on European ideas.
European isn't just a geographic descriptor :-)
I suppose. America is a much more mixed bag, while Canada at its core is still British, Scottish, and French. Enough cities have a certain sterile and organized appearance more common in Europe than the US. Not sure how else I'd describe it, but maybe Canada is a bit more "monolithic"?
You could argue even more effectively that it was British by founding and a British colony, with a big influence from the French. And we know what happened with Britain and the EU.
I think there is a lot of value there for other advanced economies in Asia, namely Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Aus/NZ.
With the US self-destructing these countries need a new plan. They are routinely being pushed around by China and need a counterweight.
Who knows, maybe after all the doom and gloom the EU might just win by default because the other world powers have become so unattractive the rest of the world rallies around them?
Bienvenue aux canucks
Stranger than fiction.
Why? Seems the US doesn't like democracy anymore and the EU for all its faults still does. I can see Japan joining too and potentially South Korea, Philippines, and others who are concerned about the state of the world and want to work together rather than drive the world apart.
If I’d said to you last year “Hey! I bet Canada is going to join the EU! No, of course not as charter-violating full member, as a newly invented ‘associate member’!” You’d probably have said “That’s both crazy and oddly specific, the chances of that have to be approaching zero”.
That’s why.
I think the world would be jumping into alignments like this if the US hadn't spent the last 80 years building a "nuclear umbrella" for the "western alliance" with itself in the centre.
I bet many countries would prefer to disassociate with US foreign policy right now if they weren't security dependent.
I expect after this destructive episode in history has played out, if we're all still alive and free in another decade then there will be alternative umbrellas.
Reality doesn't need to be plausible; we're all characters in each other's first-person narratives, with no access to the voice of an omniscient narrator.
I mean, it's only what the US is doing that's strange.
It's a country with tons of raw resources and a large consumer market, they're the "dream partner" for the large blocks (USA/China/EU, and Japan/India a bit behind). You buy their resources, they make a lot of money from it, you turn it into a final product and you make a lot of money from the value added, everyone is happy.
It's really weird that the US is suddenly not happy about this arrangement, and for resource-starved EU it's a golden opportunity; of course we will happily buy if the US doesn't want to anymore. That's why there is so little friction showing up (there will be more later, of course, but relatively little), why Canada can get so many deal quickly with everyone during this turnaround, it's that obvious of a win for everyone involved.
(as usual, the key blocking point that will need lots of work will be food, even more than it is with the US, I wish we could scrap that entire part to get a v1 going quickly but alas it's not how trade deal work)
> (as usual, the key blocking point that will need lots of work will be food, eve more than it is with the US, I wish we could scrap that entire part to get a v1 going quickly but alas it's not how trade deal work)
I mean food/dairy/autos (which is also a major EU issue) have been 90% of the issues with Canada/USA trade for decades too so I have my doubts of them figuring it out any better.
I guess Canada is way more motivated then ever before as rapid souring of the relationship with the USA from this point would be a near economic collapse for them.
CETA (the existing EU/CA one) is also being bogged down in some country including my own (France) because of some food issues, so I think everyone involved knows.
And while you're correct about Canada being extra motivated at the moment; so is the EU. It's such an absurd situation that we know the "urgent pivot need" might slow down a lot if adult come back in charge in the US. Same reason why so many want to sign so quickly, it's like gold on a platter AND Canada win too, you don't spit on that offer.
The other day in a Dutch geopolitics podcast (Boekestijn en de Wijk) it was mentioned that if there's one country that could be added to the EU "at the stroke of a pen", it would be Canada. In terms of state of the democracy, shared values, etc. And I agree with that perspective. But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it. It would be like a mirror image of Russia feeling encroached by NATO, but then in the Western hemisphere. And perhaps a red cloth invitation to the frothing bull(ies) of the Trump administration to invade their neighbor.
The US-Iran war is very unpopular and it's not even that the US is winning it.
Going against Canada would mean .. what? Having tanks roll in Toronto downtown? Assuming it would be a military success, which isn't guaranteed after what happens in Iran,that would be unpopular beyond anything we've seen.
Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically.
From what I read about what they wanted Canada to sign (the "new deal" Canada walked out of), they want to give them strict conditions and no abilities to make new deals with someone else to make them fully dependant. So the goal was not really military conquest but economic stranglehold. All the while apparently asking to tone down their minorities including the french one.
There is an alternate timeline where Canada signed that, and it looks much bleaker for them down the road.
> Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically.
Trade wars and sanctions can get very nasty too. I don't know about Canada, but most of the EU runs on US Big Tech to name just one sensitive sector.
It's a two way street; sanction on big tech is also the big weapon the EU has against the US if need be and that we kept threatening but never activating.
Which doesn't mean it's easy or won't hurt like hell, but this is a continent that just cut most of the gas cord lines in record times despite massive pain and cost, if it came down to it we would simply because if it comes down to this and we don't then we're done.
Short time it would damage us pretty hard, but long term it would be another net loss for the US.
America is a big importer of toilet paper from Canada. :-)
This “at the stroke of the pen” idea is fantastical. Actual Canadians would have next to no interest in this. Whole provinces of Canada don’t even want to be part of Canada so their appetite for having the EU parliament and Commission anywhere near them would be slim to none. Having 250million Europeans eligible to migrate to Canada would similarly be dead in the water even if a few people in Toronto and Quebec might warm to the idea of going the other way.
This is not really true. It's an extreme fringe minority in Canada that is massively misrepresented in US media, and largely propagated by AI bots.
Totally agree that it’s fringe. But joining the EU even as an associate member was on the lips of literally nobody in Canada until today.
Months ago: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadians-s...
It was the same way with Australia becoming eligible to enter the Eurovision Song Contest, .. and yet here we are today with that thoroughly normalised.
The context in the podcast was that EU was too picky in their reform criteria for inclusion for current candidates on the European continent, but that Canada as a modern country would sail past and pass the exam. The ease with which these experts concluded it would make sense for Canada to join struck me, because impact on geopolitical relationship with US was imho too easily overlooked. It is a sentiment I hear more often now, in the news.
Then that means Canada must build overwhelming firepower clearly and mine the border to hell, build anti aircraft systems everywhere and take whatever steps needed to prevent and repel an unprovoked invasion, just like it is logical for Ukraine to do the same to protect itself from Russia.
This seems to be what Canada and Europe want from each other. Both have interests in repelling other powers that deserve to have their economic and military capabilities weakened, and both seem to be able to help each other on expanding economic base, energy security, food supply, and resource availability/manufacturing capability with existing intellectual and trade property that will distance them from the US MIC.
> But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it.
That would be the icing on the cake.
Would it not make sense to perhaps invite the UK to be an associate member first? We’re right on the doorstep.
You don‘t want to have any level of association with us, as you‘ve made clear repeatedly over many years, involving many insults.
Don‘t expect the EU to actively offer anything again. Do the first step (after getting a clear view what proportion of your population actually wants that).
The United Kingdom would be a great member, as you had been. But that ship has politically sailed.
The way you paint it sounds like the EU is a hardline communist state where dissent and even insult must be punished.
Why does Canada get a free pass to pleasantries just because the Canadians haven’t had a chance to insult the EU and its federalist technocrats yet?
You seem extremely confused. Why do you want your ex partner to treat you nicely when you yourself stated you hate them? Do you want to force a relationship again despite the other party not wanting you or even you yourself wanting it? You seem completely incoherent and absurd. Make up your mind whether you want to join a voluntary membership organization or not.
The main confusion here is your use of unsuitable metaphor - people choosing that a political bloc is not behaving in a way that they believe represents their interests is in no way analogous to an abusive partner beating his/her significant other, and it is pretty addled to even make that comparison. Yet paradoxically sensible, because it demonstrates why the political process stalled as that framing really is what is in the minds of the EU bureaucrats towards the UK now. You’re also overlooking that 49% of the voters in the UK voted to stay in the EU.
Your country chose to divorce of its own will, the EU didn't kick you out. It is not a forcible organization like being a citizen in a country, its completely voluntary. So why the hell are you whining about the EU ignoring you when you yourself divorced from it. Nobody is stopping you from insulting or hating anyone you want. What is absurd to then also want to force them to interact with you and then this absurd heisen bullshit of leaving them and whining they don't want you in when there is nothing stopping you from making the request to be let in. Make up your goddamned mind, why on earth should the EU have to give you an invite when you were the one who left it and now you want to join/not-join. Be coherent. If you want to join, say it clearly and put a vote in the UK, or if you don't want to join then make it clear, otherwise stop complaining about the EU not wishing to entertain your unstated requests.
If your country initiated a divorce, it makes no sense for the other party to invite you again. You should have to request first and show to them eg with a vote you won't again flake out in a few years.
Canadian government seems to be denying this.
Carney has said Canada is not looking to become a "member" of the EU. Meanwhile, "associate member" is an entirely new thing that has yet to be defined. These aren't incompatible statements.
It appears more accurate to say that Canada and the EU want to work together more closely than they do now. There will be something more than CETA. Perhaps more shared standards on food, etc.. Likely more military procurement cooperation. Perhaps something akin to NATO style military cooperation, just in case NATO implodes*. Perhaps there will be some cooperation in trade disputes as well.
I suspect there is recognition that middle powers like the EU, Canada, Australia, etc. can do a better job of cooperating without everyone joining the EU and giving up an uncomfortable amount of sovereignty. Slightly more cooperation than currently exists may be all that's required for middle powers to do a better job of standing up to the supers.
_________
*NATO imploding is unlikely, but it's always good to have a fallback.
Carney himself used these exact words couple days ago. This is coordinated.
Do you have a citation for that? What was the exact quote?
What I found:
>>> "We're not looking to become a member of the European Union," Carney said Sunday evening on the red carpet of the Toronto International Film Festival. He attended the festival shortly after giving a speech to kick off the two-day Canada Investment Summit, which begins Monday.
>>> "What we are looking — and will begin discussions for — [is] a unique alliance with the European Union. We share the same values, we have the same priorities and we have very complementary strengths."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-european-union-eu-me...
BBC https://www.bbc.com Carney eyes 'unique alliance' with EU as trade war with US intensifies
WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/canada-alliance-eu-carney-2... Mark Carney's Audacious Bid to Make Canada an 'Associate Member' of the EU
That's the coordination here. Which may have misfired, too:
https://www.ft.com/content/2e2e0c1e-51d6-49e2-9f4a-6ef793908...
Between the US and China, the EU is the future, but they need to federalize then leverage that to implement a top notch military and economy.
Carney can see this and wants a piece of the action. The question is if the EU can escape its parochial myopia and see it.
Hopefully Russia will do something even stupider and precipitate the existential crisis that the EU desperately needs to get off its ass.
> but they need to federalize
That's not happening or if it did they'd lose a third of the members doing it.
Go ahead, make my day.
> If it did they'd lose a third of the members doing it.
As a federalist, that would be fine for me. Make a two speed europe. EU stays primarily a trade block that the "federal EU" is in.
> they need to federalize
"Shit Americans say"
The EU is NOTHING like the US. The difference between each member is the same as the difference between the US and Mexico, not like the difference between California and Utah.
It's utter ignorance to suggest that the EU could one day become a single country.
“A single country” is pretty vague. For some definitions the EU already is one, for other definitions the EU can never be one.
What we do need is doing more things on the EU level. E.g. there’s no point in all member states building a nuclear umbrella or a space program. Some taxes also work better on an EU level because capital flows freely in the union and makes taxation hard for individual members.
Nevertheless that exact plan is in the minds of every higher-up running the EU. Individual counties are an anachronism that will eventually be got rid of if the EU is to continue.
The UK is a "country of countries" - with fairly significant differences between some of the component parts - maybe the EU could become something like that?
You realise how many wars and how much bloodshed over how many centuries it took for that to happen in the UK?
The political union of England and Scotland was achieved without bloodshed and largely because folks in Scotland wanted a financial bailout to cover the utterly disastrous Scottish colonial efforts in Darien.
How about Northern Ireland?
Thanks Trump